The 20th Century optimized for efficiency. The 21st Century is paying the price in volatility. We identify the systems approaching criticality—from industrial agriculture to insurance markets—and provide the playbook for what comes next.
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Complex systems—financial markets, supply chains, ecological networks—self-organize toward a critical state. They appear stable for decades, absorbing small shocks, until they reach a tipping point.
At criticality, the physics change. A single spark doesn't burn a tree; it burns the forest. A single bank failure doesn't cause a loss; it causes a cascade.
Most investors analyze the world using Normal Distributions. They are betting on reversion to the mean. We analyze the world using Power Laws. We are positioning for the phase transition.
We tell you where the fires will start before they ignite.
The Worldview
Deep-dive essays analyzing specific systems approaching collapse. The mechanisms, the evidence, and the timeline.
The Alpha
Specific actionable positions based on the Manifesto thesis. Long/Short tickers, land acquisition targets, and hedging strategies.
We do not sell news. We sell lead time. One successful hedge against a systemic break pays for a decade of subscriptions.